Oil Markets Brace for a New Iran Escalation After U.S. Midterms

S. midterms. Hormuz Becomes Even More Dangerous and More Expensive - October has seen the most acute escalation in maritime attacks since the US-Iran war started eight months ago, with already more than 30 incidents recorded in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waterways, up from 14 in September. - The most recent addition to the list of maritime targets is a crude tanker in Iraq's exclusive economic zone, signaling that it is not only tankers seeking to surreptitiously transit the Hormuz that get targeted by Iran.

- VLCCs, the largest crude tankers available, account for 28% of all drone and missile attacks in the Persian Gulf, with the 32 impacted ships representing almost 4% of the global VLCC fleet. - Freight rates from the Gulf remain elevated with a Saudi Arabia-China voyage still costing around $33 per barrel, whilst regional demurrage rates have been rising since mid-August to their current level of $1,000,000/day.

- UKMTO, a provider of maritime security alerts, recently admitted that it is becoming increasingly more difficult to report on strikes as transiting ships prefer to sail unnoticed and charterers are wary of pushing freight rates even higher. Market Movers - US gas producer EQT NYSEEQT has agreed to buy Range Resources NYSERRC in a $13 billion all-stock deal to create the largest US gas company, with the combined Appalachian-focused company having a net output of more than 9 bcf/d.

9 billion, adding around 20,000 boe/d of production and 266,000 net acres across the Montney shale play. - UK oil major BP NYSEBP has started the second phase of exploration in Venezuela's offshore Loran gas field, using the research and survey vessel Fugro Brasilis to perform final seabed studies. - US oil giant ExxonMobil NYSEXOM reported a commercial discovery with its Rockhead-1 exploration well offshore Guyana, its first drilling success since the 2024 Hatchetfish find with a resource estimate of 500-600 million barrels.