U.S. Midterm Shake-Up Could Reshape Global Oil and Gas Markets

The 2026 US midterm elections have delivered a significant political setback to President Donald Trump, but their implications for US policy and global energy markets are far from straightforward. Democratic control of Congress will constrain the administration's domestic legislative agenda and yet leave considerable presidential discretion over foreign policy. The outcome closely matches Scenario C of our 5 October outlook legislative gridlock at home, greater congressional influence over spending and appointments, and potentially increased reliance on executive powers to define the administration's policies abroad.

Rather than reversing the direction of US policy, the elections may change how it is pursued. The US remains deeply involved in the Middle East conflict, energy prices remain elevated, and Washington increasingly uses sanctions, trade restrictions and energy resources as instruments of negotiation.