TotalEnergies Now Sees Oil Demand Peaking Between 2035 and 2040

A year after forecasting that oil demand would keep rising until 2040, TotalEnergies has moved its peak forward to between 2035 and 2040, and says the Iran war could accelerate the energy transition. The company’s annual energy outlook, released on Monday, projects demand for petroleum products plateauing through the 2030s before a slow decline. Chief sustainability officer Aurélien Hamelle told reporters that demand could fall faster if EV sales keep growing.

In November 2025, TotalEnergies forecast oil demand rising nearly 5% to 108 million barrels per day by 2040 under current trends, before easing to 98 million bpd by 2050. S. green subsidies, new LNG approvals, new coal plants in Asia and slower EV sales. ” A year earlier, the company had expected demand to peak after 2030.