Prediction market bettors are the new political pundits. Why are we listening to them? | Judith Levine

Sites like Kalshi and Polymarket offer faux populism as elites reap the benefits – and voters risk being misled

Online betting is a bit like Donald Trump.

The prediction markets – platforms where users bet on whether events will occur – pretend to be populist, pushing the nabobs aside and representing the “wisdom of the crowd”. “This data is bottom-up, not elites-driven,” a Kalshi spokesperson told Reuters. But in fact, the markets are controlled by a few, skillful traders.

Their users are led to believe they can strike it rich. But like gamblers everywhere, most of them lose most of the time, while enriching the casino and bankrolling the winner’s takings.