Crude Is Back at 80% in the Gulf, but Refined Products Are Stuck at 35%

The story in the Strait of Hormuz has been that Middle Eastern crude exports have recovered to about 80% to 85% of pre-war levels, including pipeline shipments, while refined-product exports remain muted. The uneven recovery shows how Gulf producers prioritize crude oil shipments over refined products as the Hormuz chokepoint remains vulnerable despite encouraging diplomatic signals.

Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman emeritus of industry consultant FGE NexantECA, said last week that while Middle Eastern crude exports, including pipeline shipments, have recovered to 80% to 85% of pre-war levels, refined-product shipments remain at around 35% to 40%. "Oil infrastructure such as refineries remains susceptible to drone strikes," which has led Gulf producers to prioritize crude shipments, said Xavier Tang, senior market analyst for Vortexa.