Bitcoin win rate vs. S&P 500 recovers as post-midterm history favors stocks

Bitcoin (BTC) has outperformed the S&P 500 in half of US trading sessions over Glassnode’s latest measurement period, ending a prolonged stretch of losing more sessions than it won.

Bitcoin beat the S&P 500 by returns in 50% of US trading sessions over the past 90 sessions, per Glassnode data.

Bitcoin’s session win rate has not exceeded 50% since March 2025.

The S&P 500 gained an average of 10.7% in the three months after the seven midterm elections since 1922 in which Democrats won both chambers under a Republican president.

Bitcoin ends stretch of weakness against S&P 500

Data from onchain analytics platform Glassnode shows that Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 in 50% of Wall Street trading sessions over a rolling 90-session period.